Probability

 "The probability that an event will occur is the fraction of times you expect to see that event in many trials. The odds are defined as the probability that the event will occur divided by the probability that the event will not occur." 

What is the probability an event will occur vs the odds it will occur? I hate to use either of these calculations. I like either yes or no, or, it did or it didn't. That's what bothers me about the election polls. Who is being asked? Who is answering honestly? The other day someone gave me their perspective on the election polls. 

1) If you voted for Trump you will vote again for him. I would say that's 100% odds.

2) If you are a Liberal and see the destruction and anarchy that is being allowed to happen, you might vote for Trump as you want law and order. You are scared of a Biden regime.

3) If you are a Democrat and fear that your safety and freedoms will turn into Socialism, you might switch parties and vote for Trump.

4) If you are a staunch Democrat, you will vote for Biden.

5) Votes do not always go down racial lines. Many Black and Latino's see that Trump has done more for them than any other President. Fact check this statement. 

If Trump won the 2016 election, how do the media polls say there will be a Biden landslide? Is it fake news? Is it skewed statistics? Is it just propaganda, that they hope will lead to Trump supporters giving up and not going to the polls? They don't calculate the strength of the Trump supporters.  

So whether we use probability, odds, or gut feeling, the answer will be seen on November 4th.